I first heard about this a few months ago in The New York Times when the recession was gaining its first wave of major press time, but it reappeared again in the Moscow Times on January 12 with some pretty strong language attached to it. Its clearly a heavy hitter with the latter paper’s audience; it’s remained the top story for the last three days.
Igor Panarin, the Dean of International Relations at the Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy, predicted that the United States would split into six territories by 2010.
Panarin said there was a roughly 50% chance that economic and political disaster would lead to the worst-case scenario of a total economic collapse in the States, leading to wealthier states withholding funds from the federal government and threatening secession and war. The country would then be carved into portions controlled or influenced by Russia, China, Japan, Canada, the European Union, and Mexico.
What was interesting about the article was Panarin’s detailing of a “Pacific Doctrine” to guide Russia in carving a place for itself in a world without the US. Particularly telling was his use of the phrase “A New Russia Upon a Hill” – of course alluding to John Winthrop’s quote about the New England colonies of early America.
The prediction is getting press because of an earlier prediction Panarin made which came true. He supposedly predicted the current financial crisis back in the early ’90s. Even if he has achieved some sort of Nostradamic credibility, I think 50% is a bit high for the odds of such an elaborate scenario to take place.
Even if secession became a possibility, to suggest the country would be picked over by foreign powers like vultures on a carcass is ludicrous. Granted, to claim they wouldn’t try is also ludicrous, but in a secessionist future, we’re talking about large regions with rooted populations of former Americans. Most likely the regions would reform into more manageable, autonomous economies.
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